My Software has a Vulnerability, Should I Worry ?
Vulnerability studies usually rely on the NVD or
‘proof-of-concept’ exploits databases (Exploit-db, or OSVDB),
while the individual vulnerability risk is measured by its CVSS
score. A key issue is whether reported and evaluated vulnerabilities
have been actually exploited in the wild, and whether the
risk score do match the risk of actual exploitation.
We compare the NVD dataset with two additional datasets,
the EDBfor the white market of vulnerabilities, and the EKITS
for the exploits traded in the black market. We benchmark
them against Symantec’s threat explorer dataset (SYM) of actual
exploit in the wild. We analyze the whole spectrum of CVSS
submetrics and use these characteristics to perform a casecontrolled
analysis of CVSS scores to test its reliability as a risk
factor for actual exploitation. We conclude that EDB and NVD
are the wrong databases to look at for studies that targets real
exploits, (b) the CVSS score present high sensitivity (ruling in
vulns for which we should worry) only for vulnerability traded
in the black market, (c) we miss a metric with high specificity
(ruling out vulns for which we shouldn’t worry).