D.03.4. Model Validation

This report presents the model building and validation process for the Urban Transport.
The models have been developed for the Security and Society and Security risk domains
as these are the most applicable to the urban transport scenarios.
The models have been developed by the technical work-packages, WP4 and WP5, with
the support of the Urban Transport WP. The models have been developed after a
selection process on the most adequate and interesting scenarios for the use case,
taking into account the interest of the stakeholders and which of them cover the most
recent security threats in the Urban Transport domain.
The use case has been provided to the technical work-packages with all the information
describing each scenario, and the required data for the model building process. For each
of the models a slight different process has been followed. In case of social model, the
information on security incidents and passengers complaints was provided to
complement the media analysis done initially by ISAS CR, which provided information on
the specific security scenarios with a social impact. For the design of the risk model,
based on the templates of the Adversarial risk analysis methodology (ARA), the process
consisted in selecting the most appropriate scenarios and approach and then providing
the data required by the technical work-package for the fine design of the model.
Finally, a validation step on the scenarios has been done, with the participation of
stakeholders in two workshops. Additional information has been collected during these
workshops on future and emerging threats, especially in regard to the social dimension
and the internationalisation of some of the already existing security threats, which are
evolving into new forms of problems that must be addressed with a different approach.
The question of pan-European coordination has been also discussed by the stakeholders
during these workshops, specifically in regard to the coordination of law enforcement
agencies and other initiatives at European level, funded from the European Commission
Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport (DG MOVE).
The approach and the models provided were considered quite appropriate for their use
in the public transport domain. For the social model the effects of security human
resources on customer satisfaction and the impact of the application of technical
resources and new technologies on the security scenarios were defined. For the risk
model, it can be easily extended to consider additional scenarios by adapting the
methodology to the specific countermeasures required by them.

Model Validation